Take Off Your Tinfoil Hat and Consider This
I know what you’re thinking now. You’re looking at the poll numbers and thinking, even though, for a good part of the year, the Democrats have been polling well overall and in individual races, and the President and Republicans have been polling poorly and, less than 3 weeks away, there’s been no improvement on their end, and, historically, it all points to the Democrats taking over the House and possibly the Senate next month since Republicans’re looking even worse than the Democrats did around this time in 1994, that somehow, come Nov. 8, we’re all going to be in for a rude surprise when, once again, the Republicans somehow emerge victorious. You’ve followed the last several election cycles. Whether you believe Diebold is in the tank for them, or that they’re pulling off some of the tried-and-true election shenanigans (purging of voters, challenging voters at the polls, sending out threatening fliers in minority neighborhoods), or that an October Surprise has already been scripted and is just waiting for an evil mastermind such as Dick Cheney or Karl Rove to issue Order 66 to his underlings, a massive news event that will force them to suspend the elections or sway people in droves to vote Republican to save their skin. You’re worried there will be some massive swing to vote Republican, a turnaround that will rank right up there with the ’04 Red Sox against the Yankees, a heroic victory that will culminate in a goose-stepping Republican parade that will demonstrate once and for all the brilliance of Republicans and the magnificence of their codpieces, while we just slink on the sidelines, defeated, demoralized, pondering what went wrong, pondering how can we ever have the courage to fight once more after such a stunning collapse and wouldn’t it be much simpler if we just gave up and moved to Canada.
I know that’s what you’re thinking. I’m thinking the same thing. It’s paranoia. It’s thinking that somehow the other side has supernatural abilities. It comes from repeated losing, from having certain victories snatched away in the last minutes. It skews your sense of reality into thinking that the only reality is a defeated one.
But I’m here, at the turning of the tide (as Gandalf the White might say), to offer you some hope. Consider the following:
--The polling numbers are not a short-term fluke. They are long-term numbers, lasting a good portion of this year and beyond, and they are fairly consistent. You can take polls with a grain of salt, sure, but they indicate broad dissatisfaction with the current leadership, which, no matter how they try and frame it, is Republican.
--With the hole that seemingly keeps getting bigger for Republicans, one has to wonder what any sort of “October Surprise” can do to help that. It would have to be something on a massive scale—like a terrorist attack as devastating as 9-11, or an initiation of war—to change things. But these sorts of things, even if they are able to somehow coordinate them, are uncontrollable events. There’s no telling what a terrorist attack could do—the number of deaths, the economic impact, chaos and riots, the responses from other countries. There’s no telling what another war could do—more terrorist attacks, actions from other nations not involved (such as Iran or North Korea), the economic impact, what happens to our soldiers in Iraq.
And there’s a growing sense of distrust of the Republicans in general. An “October Surprise” could hurt them, depending on what it is, because many may believe it was orchestrated by them. Oh, the cynicism!
--Even with their blustering around the 9-11 anniversary, and the President’s nonstop tour giving speeches about fighting them there instead of here and how Iraq is the most important battle in the history of mankind, they haven’t been able to change the poll numbers. Lower gas prices haven’t changed the polls numbers. The supposed booming economy hasn’t helped them (an economy which has been crafted to “boom” only for the rich and corporations—which is the reason why the rest of us aren’t feeling it; all the leading economic indicators don’t mean squat when you’re drowning in consumer debt, have no health insurance, can’t afford your house payment, can’t sell your house). The media’s barrage of stories about how the President’s ratings are improving or might start improving and how just about every situation is a “win-win” for Republicans (and conversely a “lose-lose” for Democrats) hasn’t actually helped.
--There has been no good news for the Republicans. The Mark Foley scandal, involving multiple Republican leaders. The worsening situation in Iraq. North Korea now testing nuclear weapons. The Jack Abramoff scandal, involving multiple Republicans. Bob Ney and Randy Cunningham headed to prison. Damning new books by the likes of Bob Woodward and David Kuo. It keeps piling up, and, man, does this shit stink!
--Karl Rove, while a cynical, shady, manipulative political operative, is not God. He doesn’t control all events. There’s no way he planned for the Mark Foley scandal to happen. He’s human, prone to mistakes. Yeah, he and the President have had smug looks on their faces lately, making you wonder what they have up their sleeves, but what do you expect them to do? Cry and worry about defeat (our side has that cornered, anyway)? Defiant posturing and blustering are central to Republican attitudes. They have to keep it up. If not, the diehards will abandon them, and the corporate donations will dry up if they wave the white flag.
And they may very well believe that they can win this thing. They may believe that, with their money advantage and get-out-the-vote apparatus—successful things in the past—may very well win the day for them again, regardless of the poll numbers. But maybe they’re just deluded. Based on other things—particularly Iraq, where we were going to be greeted with flowers and how the insurgency is in its last throes—is that such a stretch to believe?
--The front-and-center issues are Iraq and the Mark Foley scandal, not gay marriage and abortion. Their attempts to work the morality angle are falling flat, unlike in previous years. Their standing on “values” is greatly diminished by Mark Foley, and, even though they’ve controlled the government for a better part of 6 years, they’ve done nothing with gay marriage and abortion, and the fundamentalists know this. Iraq is just a flat-out disaster that keeps producing death and destruction but no end.
--Howard Dean’s Fifty State Strategy has helped build the Democratic party in every state and field candidates in every state, even in places where a Democratic victory is remote. This is critical, because, now that the shit has hit the fan, the party doesn’t have to scramble to run a candidate in a place that’s become competitive. I mean, a congressional seat in Idaho has become competitive for the Democrats. Idaho!
--Internet sites such as DailyKos and Media Matters, among many others, have provided an instant forum to respond to Republican and media disinformation as well as provide thoughtful analysis of the news and politics from a liberal perspective. Robert Parry at Consortium News has long contended that liberals must create their own media machine such as what the Republicans have done the last 30 years. It’s not happening on the airwaves, but something comparable is definitely happening on the Internet.
Hopefully, these points provide you some comfort in these anxious times. Who knows what will happen on election day. We have to be cautious with optimism until the game has been played, but I think this time, we have plenty of reasons to have hope.
I know that’s what you’re thinking. I’m thinking the same thing. It’s paranoia. It’s thinking that somehow the other side has supernatural abilities. It comes from repeated losing, from having certain victories snatched away in the last minutes. It skews your sense of reality into thinking that the only reality is a defeated one.
But I’m here, at the turning of the tide (as Gandalf the White might say), to offer you some hope. Consider the following:
--The polling numbers are not a short-term fluke. They are long-term numbers, lasting a good portion of this year and beyond, and they are fairly consistent. You can take polls with a grain of salt, sure, but they indicate broad dissatisfaction with the current leadership, which, no matter how they try and frame it, is Republican.
--With the hole that seemingly keeps getting bigger for Republicans, one has to wonder what any sort of “October Surprise” can do to help that. It would have to be something on a massive scale—like a terrorist attack as devastating as 9-11, or an initiation of war—to change things. But these sorts of things, even if they are able to somehow coordinate them, are uncontrollable events. There’s no telling what a terrorist attack could do—the number of deaths, the economic impact, chaos and riots, the responses from other countries. There’s no telling what another war could do—more terrorist attacks, actions from other nations not involved (such as Iran or North Korea), the economic impact, what happens to our soldiers in Iraq.
And there’s a growing sense of distrust of the Republicans in general. An “October Surprise” could hurt them, depending on what it is, because many may believe it was orchestrated by them. Oh, the cynicism!
--Even with their blustering around the 9-11 anniversary, and the President’s nonstop tour giving speeches about fighting them there instead of here and how Iraq is the most important battle in the history of mankind, they haven’t been able to change the poll numbers. Lower gas prices haven’t changed the polls numbers. The supposed booming economy hasn’t helped them (an economy which has been crafted to “boom” only for the rich and corporations—which is the reason why the rest of us aren’t feeling it; all the leading economic indicators don’t mean squat when you’re drowning in consumer debt, have no health insurance, can’t afford your house payment, can’t sell your house). The media’s barrage of stories about how the President’s ratings are improving or might start improving and how just about every situation is a “win-win” for Republicans (and conversely a “lose-lose” for Democrats) hasn’t actually helped.
--There has been no good news for the Republicans. The Mark Foley scandal, involving multiple Republican leaders. The worsening situation in Iraq. North Korea now testing nuclear weapons. The Jack Abramoff scandal, involving multiple Republicans. Bob Ney and Randy Cunningham headed to prison. Damning new books by the likes of Bob Woodward and David Kuo. It keeps piling up, and, man, does this shit stink!
--Karl Rove, while a cynical, shady, manipulative political operative, is not God. He doesn’t control all events. There’s no way he planned for the Mark Foley scandal to happen. He’s human, prone to mistakes. Yeah, he and the President have had smug looks on their faces lately, making you wonder what they have up their sleeves, but what do you expect them to do? Cry and worry about defeat (our side has that cornered, anyway)? Defiant posturing and blustering are central to Republican attitudes. They have to keep it up. If not, the diehards will abandon them, and the corporate donations will dry up if they wave the white flag.
And they may very well believe that they can win this thing. They may believe that, with their money advantage and get-out-the-vote apparatus—successful things in the past—may very well win the day for them again, regardless of the poll numbers. But maybe they’re just deluded. Based on other things—particularly Iraq, where we were going to be greeted with flowers and how the insurgency is in its last throes—is that such a stretch to believe?
--The front-and-center issues are Iraq and the Mark Foley scandal, not gay marriage and abortion. Their attempts to work the morality angle are falling flat, unlike in previous years. Their standing on “values” is greatly diminished by Mark Foley, and, even though they’ve controlled the government for a better part of 6 years, they’ve done nothing with gay marriage and abortion, and the fundamentalists know this. Iraq is just a flat-out disaster that keeps producing death and destruction but no end.
--Howard Dean’s Fifty State Strategy has helped build the Democratic party in every state and field candidates in every state, even in places where a Democratic victory is remote. This is critical, because, now that the shit has hit the fan, the party doesn’t have to scramble to run a candidate in a place that’s become competitive. I mean, a congressional seat in Idaho has become competitive for the Democrats. Idaho!
--Internet sites such as DailyKos and Media Matters, among many others, have provided an instant forum to respond to Republican and media disinformation as well as provide thoughtful analysis of the news and politics from a liberal perspective. Robert Parry at Consortium News has long contended that liberals must create their own media machine such as what the Republicans have done the last 30 years. It’s not happening on the airwaves, but something comparable is definitely happening on the Internet.
Hopefully, these points provide you some comfort in these anxious times. Who knows what will happen on election day. We have to be cautious with optimism until the game has been played, but I think this time, we have plenty of reasons to have hope.
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